Predictions

If you know with 100% certainty the direction of a stock (up or down), you can make millions. All kinds of tools or services are there to help gain an edge over others, ranging from real time stock quotes, trending tools, newsletters, advisers, etc.
(Too bad insider trading is illegal but that doesn’t stop people from trying).

In warfare, knowing your enemy is a strategic advantage because with information on the size of the troop, the whereabouts, the means, the strategies and the timing, you can plan efficient preemptive actions and avoid traps. In sport fighting, you look at your opponent’s video as part of your preparation, understand their strength as well as the weaknesses (especially those relative to you).

Tools or information sources only increase your chances of successes – they are not perfect and there are no guarantees. Statistics and probability can predict with reasonable confidence over a large sample and over a long period of time. However, statistics cannot predict the outcome of one specific instance / event.

Neither martial art training nor a black belt make you invincible. However, knowledge and training do increase your chances of winning. Knowing that nothing is absolute, as a martial artist, you must keep the following points in mind:

• Regardless of how good you are, there is always a risk of injury in an actual street fight – make sure that it is worth the risk.
• Treat every fighter as skilled – never be over confident because arrogance often lead to defeat.
• Never count yourself out despite the odds because it is not over until it is over. Statistics are only patterns, you may be the one and only exception to the rule.
• Find ways to increase your odds, make your opponent predictable, mislead your opponent so that you are less than predictable, deplete your opponent’s resources and conserve / shore up your own, etc.
• “What if you are wrong” – have contingencies.

Exercise:

• Figure how to improve on your prediction ability
• Figure out how to make yourself less predictable